Nota Bene #119: Think! It Ain't Illegal Yet

“My wife and I were happy for twenty years. Then we met.” Who said it? Continue reading

Pekar Tribute 6: Benjamin Frisch

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Nota Bene #118: VOTE!

“I am not fit for this office and should never have been here.” Who said it? Continue reading

Nota Bene #117: Wake Up!

“Hollywood is so crooked that Mafia gangsters are entirely outclassed and don’t stand a chance. People in Hollywood are smarter. They have more sophisticated knowledge of money and deals and how to steal legally rather than illegally.” Who said it? Continue reading

Black swans, butterfly effects, terrorist detectors and marketing research: we don't know nearly as much as we think we do

Prediction is a big, big business these days, and even those of us who aren’t explicitly in the prediction business probably do all we can to make sense of the future. For example:

  • Does your company do marketing research? (If it’s a business of any size and sophistication, the answer is probably yes.)
  • Do you track the financial pages?
  • Do you keep abreast of the latest innovations in your industry (or any industry, for that matter)?
  • Have you factored in economic considerations when trying to decide whether or not to buy a house?
  • If you have an IRA, have you factored in where you think the damned economy is going in making fund decisions? Continue reading