Brexit: Facts cannot be denied. Eventually there are nothing but consequences.


The Globalist: “We’ve run out of time, and no amount of clever denunciations or legislation or voting will change the inevitable progression of the choices we have made, and the facts we have refused to acknowledge.”

So … let me stick my neck out and make, not so much a prediction, as a thing …

Where we’re at:

  • Boris Johnson, the stupid person’s idea of a British Trump, only Aristocratic, has a 1-seat majority in parliament;
  • Most members of parliament were voted in on a manifesto of either being against Brexit, or for the softest of soft Brexits;
  • Johnson is the second unelected prime minister, deriving their mandate solely from Tory party members who are entirely not reflective of the public;
  • Johnson has made it clear that his mandate is to crash out of the EU without a deal, isolate the UK entirely from the EU, and then try for a trade deal with the US;
  • Opposition MPs see in the government’s weakness an opportunity to crash the government (vote of no confidence) and set up a government of national unity which can then take the question of whether to remain, or leave with no deal, back to the people in a new election (not referendum), or a new referendum (not election);
  • The opposition is wracked with conflict about who gets to lead this new government, and who should be permitted to have any say in anything at all.

Where that leaves us …

The leader of the official opposition is Jeremy Corbyn, an anti-Semite and Trotskyite. Labour should be cleaning up. A weak and broken Tory party presiding over an incredibly unequal and creaking economy in thrall to the worst form of Imperial nativism. Instead, Labour is being investigated for racism and deep-seated anti-Semitism, and Corbyn has the same response as Bernie Sanders. Corbynites believe he is the first coming of Christ, everyone else thinks he’s completely batshit bonkers.

The coalescing opposition refuse to even think of installing him as an interim prime minister, and have suggested the two oldest members of parliament – who are retiring at the next election, and both of whom are both extremely pleasant, and extremely experienced (both been cabinet ministers in their time) – as a shared interim PM.

It’s a really good suggestion, but a waste of time. Corbyn isn’t very different from Johnson. No matter how poisoned the PM position, they want it and will do anything, say anything, be anything to get it.

The reality is whoever either delivers Brexit, or takes on the task of returning the decision to the public, will probably end their political career. It’s utterly stupid of Corbyn to want to be the PM who returns this decision via a vote or referendum to the people. The Tories will simply label Corbyn as the betrayer of Brexit, while Labour will label Johnson as the destroyer of jobs. Both will savage themselves out of government and leave the next parliament hopelessly incapable of doing anything.

It’s safer for everyone if the interim PM is someone on the periphery of politics with a clear exit at the next election.

So … given that the British have managed to choose the stupidest and most self-destructive alternative in any choice … what next?

My bet is still on a hard Brexit, with the UK waking up on 1 November to being out of the EU and having no trade relationship with anyone. However, they won’t just be out, they’ll also be out at the worst possible moment. As the world heads into a US-driven global recession, and the Tories have destroyed any potential relationship with the EU for at least five years, the country will begin the worst self-inflicted immiseration of its people’s prosperity since Zimbabwe nationalised all its farms and Venezuela nationalised all its industry.

The likelihood is the gradual break-up of the UK. Northern Ireland will, probably merely through accident, merge with Ireland. Scotland will vote to leave, then vote to join the EU. Wales will suffer on.

I just can’t see the opposition uniting around Corbyn. And, even if they did, I don’t see Corbyn doing much more than prevaricate and warble as he has done ever since his elevation. He’s a bigot and an economic moron, but he’s a general moron too. His mind isn’t at all flexible enough for the complexity of what is happening around him. He’s still stuck in the 1950s and sees everything through that lens.

The British idea that they can – if all goes badly – somehow magic Brexit away is identical to the global response to climate change.

We’ve run out of time, and no amount of clever denunciations or legislation or voting will change the inevitable progression of the choices we have made, and the facts we have refused to acknowledge.

Facts cannot be denied. Eventually there are nothing but consequences.

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