I’ve been saying for months now that Hillary Clinton is the only chance the Republicans have in 2008, and some new polls raise the electability question all over again.
First, a new Zogby online poll “shows Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York would lose to every one of the top five Republican presidential contenders.” Her main opponents at present, Barack Obama and John Edwards, both defeat or tie any likely GOP challenger.
A new Gallup Poll finds Sen. Hillary Clinton with a slim but not statistically significant advantage over both former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain in head-to-head matchups for the 2008 general election for president. Clinton has much more substantial leads over former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Gov. Mitt Romney. Sen. Barack Obama also has significant leads over Thompson and Romney, but essentially ties with Giuliani and McCain.
My guess is that the Gallup poll is a little more reliable since it’s not of the online variety, even though the primary finding of the Zogby poll makes more intuitive sense to me. Of course, being a phone poll, I doubt it’s doing a very good job of sampling likely voters without landlines – people like me and a lot of younger people, who rely exclusively on mobile phones. Also, the Gallup poll pretends that Edwards doesn’t exist, a point I’m not going to be willing to concede until after New Hampshire, at least.
In any case, you can draw a number of conclusions and none of them are terribly happy ones if you’re rooting for the Democrats. Given all that has transpired over the past few years you have to be a little disturbed that any Republican is looking even remotely competitive with any Democrat.
Maybe if you had a message, a vision, and a track record that demonstrated we could count on you to deliver on your promises…