New polls revive electability questions for Hillary

I’ve been saying for months now that Hillary Clinton is the only chance the Republicans have in 2008, and some new polls raise the electability question all over again.

First, a new Zogby online poll “shows Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York would lose to every one of the top five Republican presidential contenders.” Her main opponents at present, Barack Obama and John Edwards, both defeat or tie any likely GOP challenger.

However, Gallup has Clinton faring a little better.

A new Gallup Poll finds Sen. Hillary Clinton with a slim but not statistically significant advantage over both former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain in head-to-head matchups for the 2008 general election for president. Clinton has much more substantial leads over former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Gov. Mitt Romney. Sen. Barack Obama also has significant leads over Thompson and Romney, but essentially ties with Giuliani and McCain.

My guess is that the Gallup poll is a little more reliable since it’s not of the online variety, even though the primary finding of the Zogby poll makes more intuitive sense to me. Of course, being a phone poll, I doubt it’s doing a very good job of sampling likely voters without landlines – people like me and a lot of younger people, who rely exclusively on mobile phones. Also, the Gallup poll pretends that Edwards doesn’t exist, a point I’m not going to be willing to concede until after New Hampshire, at least.

In any case, you can draw a number of conclusions and none of them are terribly happy ones if you’re rooting for the Democrats. Given all that has transpired over the past few years you have to be a little disturbed that any Republican is looking even remotely competitive with any Democrat.

Maybe if you had a message, a vision, and a track record that demonstrated we could count on you to deliver on your promises…

10 replies »

  1. Democrats think all the money and corporate support that accrues to her is like an imprimatur that she’s designated for president-hood.

    You can even tell me that if I don’t vote for her it will be like voting for Nader instead of Gore in 2000 (which I did).

    The head knows the Republicans need to be stopped at whatever cost. Yet my hand won’t obey and flip the lever for her in the voting booth (yes, they still have them in my district).

    They gotta find somebody who doesn’t trigger the gag reflex in so many of us.

  2. I wouldn’t be too confident in the Zogby poll, particularly since the guy himself has an agenda, it seems:

    This doesn’t take away from the fact that Clinton is not the best face the Democrats should be putting forward, but it’s a reminder that things like this are planted in the news cycle with specific intent–in this case, to fan or magnify doubt in people’s minds.

    I learned my lesson in 2000. Pulling the lever for Nader gave us eight years of the worst Presidency in modern history, if not the whole of American history. I’d vote for every single Dem running, all the way down to Mike Gravel, and then MAYBE Ron Paul, before I pulled the lever for Ghouliani or Huckabee or one of those clowns.

  3. If there’s one thing Bush v. Gore taught us (beyond how easy it is to steal an election), it’s that every single vote counts. I keep this in mind any time my own stomach wavers at the thought of putting a corporatist Repub-lite like Hillary in office….because as bad as she could potentially be, she isn’t nearly the threat that a rapacious fascist like Ghouliani or a crazy fundie theocrat like Huckabee is.

    If it’s bad vs. evil, bad wins every time.

  4. I’ve recently learned an important lesson that everyone should probably learn: always, always, ALWAYS look at the source of the poll, the questions, and the data before accepting its conclusions.

  5. Ok, it is official Hillary will lead this country if Giuliani gets the republican ticket. I watched the debate tonight and hoped that Giuliani would break away from the pack. However, instead of him performing at his best, I saw him act like a bully. He may lovable to some, but he is not logical at all. He may have the majority vote in some polls, but the majority is not always right. In history we can see this. Hitler had the majority vote at one point, while Martin Luther King was fighting for the minorities. The majority vote does not make anyone man right regardless of there political party. I’m sorry Rudy Giuliani, but I can not give you my vote. I’m must vote for one who not only compassionate and consistent but also for one who is correct.

    This is why I am voting for Mike Huckabee:

    It is not because he is religious
    It is not because he is republican
    It is simple because he is RIGHT!

    Faith, Family, Freedom…FOVEVER!!!